长江有色：宏观面宽松预期年末资金共振 31日镍价或上涨

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel futures market shows a macroeconomic easing expectation, with overnight London nickel rising by 6.47% to close at $16,780, an increase of $1,020 per ton [1] - Domestic nickel futures also experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 134,400 yuan per ton, up 4,720 yuan per ton, a 3.64% increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply expectations are heavily influenced by policy disruptions, particularly Indonesia's nickel ore production reduction and the taxation plan for associated cobalt, leading to strong supply contraction expectations [3] - The rainy season in the Philippines and domestic smelting reductions further exacerbate the tight supply expectations, despite high global visible inventories [3] Group 3: Demand Factors - Demand remains structurally rigid, with stainless steel production slowing and steel mills being cautious in restocking; the new energy sector shows steady demand but is sensitive to high prices, resulting in a market characterized by "high prices with limited transactions" [4] Group 4: Industry Chain Insights - Profit margins are concentrating upstream due to strong bargaining power and stable profits in the resource sector, while the smelting segment faces pressure from "high costs" and "weak demand" [5] - Downstream stainless steel and battery companies are highly sensitive to raw material prices, leading to a restructuring of profit distribution within the industry chain [5] Group 5: Price Outlook - Short-term nickel prices are expected to oscillate between "tightening policy expectations" and "high inventory with weak demand realities," with a forecast of maintaining a strong oscillating trend [6] - Future attention will be on Indonesian policy details, downstream restocking pace, and the recovery progress of new energy demand [6]