Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang·2025-12-31 03:25Core Viewpoint - The speech emphasizes the need for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to address medium-term economic fluctuations and ensure sustainable growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Theories and Adjustments - The traditional New Keynesian theory suggests that the economy can achieve macro balance in the medium to long term, but short-term frictions can lead to welfare losses, necessitating counter-cyclical monetary policy [3]. - There is a call for reflection and adjustment of this framework, particularly emphasizing the importance of medium-term fluctuations and the need for cross-cycle adjustments, which may require greater intensity than counter-cyclical adjustments [4]. Group 2: Medium-term Influencing Factors - Financial cycles are identified as a medium-term force, with the current phase being a downward trend, leading to a relative demand shortage compared to supply [5]. - Economies of scale are highlighted as another medium-term influencing factor, with the green industry and AI being significant contributors. The green industry benefits from economies of scale, while fossil energy typically does not [5][6]. - AI's impact on economic growth is debated, with estimates suggesting it could contribute an additional 0.8-1.3 percentage points to annual growth over the next decade, while other analyses predict a more modest increase of 0.07 percentage points [6]. Group 3: Geoeconomic Issues - The shift in China's trade partners towards the "Belt and Road" initiative and the increasing share of direct investment in these countries are noted as significant geoeconomic trends [7]. - Both economies of scale and geoeconomic factors contribute to the relative demand shortage, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to boost domestic demand and ensure sustainable medium-term growth [7].