天然橡胶市场震荡偏强

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a slight rebound due to improved fundamentals and capital inflows, with prices expected to stabilize in the range of 15,100 to 15,400 CNY per ton in the short term [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is showing a significant seasonal contraction, with domestic production entering a downward trend as major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan have largely ceased harvesting [2] - Domestic weekly production of natural rubber was only 5,000 tons as of December 25, a decrease of 500 tons week-on-week, indicating a further tightening of supply [2] - In the overseas market, while natural rubber is still in a high production cycle, uncertainties are increasing due to weather conditions affecting harvesting in Southeast Asia [2] - Tensions at the Thailand-Cambodia border are causing additional disruptions to supply, particularly in key rubber-producing regions [2] Demand Factors - Despite being in a seasonal low demand period, the essential demand for natural rubber remains stable, with the semi-steel tire industry operating at a capacity utilization rate of 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Full-steel tire capacity utilization is at 61.69%, primarily driven by essential procurement [3] Market Sentiment - As of December 21, social inventory of natural rubber in China reached 1.182 million tons, with a weekly increase of 30,000 tons, but prices have not significantly declined, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The main futures contract prices have shown resilience, with the RU2605 contract reaching 15,890 CNY and 15,840 CNY on December 25 and 26, respectively, suggesting a divergence between current inventory levels and future supply-demand expectations [4] - Analysts believe that the current high inventory levels are already priced in, and the market is shifting focus to future demand recovery and potential decreases in imports [5] Substitution Effects - The long-standing substitution relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber is currently weakening, as the price gap between the two has narrowed due to rising production costs for synthetic rubber [6] - As of December 26, the price difference between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has decreased to 4,317 CNY, reducing the competitive advantage of synthetic rubber [6]