Sugar Prices Supported by the Outlook for Smaller Sugar Output in Brazil

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York sugar reaching a 2.25-month high while London sugar prices are declining, influenced by production forecasts from Brazil and India [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decrease by 3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [1] - Conab has raised Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bullish outlook for production [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT through November 2025/26 [4] Group 2: India's Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15, 2025-26 surged by 28% year-on-year to 7.83 MMT, contributing to a potential increase in exports [3] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply issues [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [5] - Global sugar production is projected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [5] - Sugar trader Czarnikow has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [5]