美国债市“高光时刻”难复制? 降息路径模糊叠加财政刺激 2026总回报或降档

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market, including high-rated corporate bonds, is expected to face a more challenging environment in 2026 due to a potential slowdown in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the impact of fiscal stimulus measures from the Trump administration [1][6] - In 2025, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points, significantly boosted U.S. Treasury prices, leading to a strong performance in the bond market, with a total investment return of approximately 7.3%, the best since 2020 [2][5] - Market consensus suggests that total investment returns in 2026 may not match the strong performance of 2025, with expectations of smaller rate cuts and increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's actions [5][11] Group 2 - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped over 40 basis points this year, currently around 4.1%, influenced by the Fed's rate cuts and global market dynamics [8][11] - The investment-grade corporate bond credit spread remains around 80 basis points, close to its lowest level since 1998, indicating a stable market despite potential future volatility [12][15] - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the credit spread for investment-grade corporate bonds may widen to 110 basis points, driven by increased issuance from U.S. tech companies, while total returns for high-rated bonds are expected to decline to around 3% [15][16] Group 3 - Concerns are rising regarding the credit risk of high-rated corporate bonds, particularly in the context of the AI investment boom, with some analysts predicting that these bonds may be subject to significant selling pressure [16][17] - Major tech companies, including Amazon and Oracle, are planning substantial debt issuances to fund AI infrastructure projects, raising concerns about their financial stability and potential default risks [17][18] - The market is witnessing a shift in credit risk perception, with Oracle's credit default swap spreads nearly doubling, indicating heightened concerns over its creditworthiness amid significant debt financing [17][18]