The real deal: M&As to pick up pace; more value than volumes

Core Insights - Continued momentum in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) is anticipated for 2026, driven by strong balance sheets and growing corporate confidence [2][5] - A broader range of sectors is expected to participate in M&A activity, moving beyond traditional leaders like financial services, technology, and healthcare [2][5] - Domestic consolidation remains a key theme as Indian corporates pursue strategic growth locally while exploring international opportunities [2][5] M&A Activity Overview - Domestic consolidation reached $104 billion in 2025, marking its strongest performance in two years, while inbound deals climbed to $30 billion [4] - Outbound deals surged to $22 billion, the highest in a decade, led by acquisitions from Tata Motors and Tega Industries [4] Shifting M&A Participants - The makeup of M&A participants is changing, with mid-cap companies increasingly entering the M&A arena, previously dominated by conglomerates [3][5] - Recent examples include Mankind Pharma's acquisition of Bharat Serums and Vaccines, Tilaknagar's purchase of the Imperial Blue brand, and Jubilant's acquisition of Hindustan Coca Cola Beverages [3][5] Inbound M&A Trends - Inbound M&A is expected to continue in sectors like financial services, consumer, and infrastructure, which remain attractive to foreign investors [3][5] - The transition from a volume-driven to a value-driven model is noted, with transaction values rising sharply despite declining deal volumes over the past three years [3][5] Notable Inbound Deals - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group's $4.4 billion acquisition of a 20% stake in Shriram Finance was the largest inbound deal in the financial sector this year [3][5] - Other significant investments include Emirates NBD's $3 billion investment in RBL Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation's $1.6 billion injection into Yes Bank [3][5] Future Outlook - The potential privatization of IDBI Bank is highlighted, with interest from Fairfax Group and Kotak Mahindra Bank as India plans to reduce the number of public sector banks [3][5] - Dealmakers' optimism for 2026 is supported by rising disposable incomes, consumption growth, and a favorable policy environment [3][5] - Recent regulatory changes, such as allowing banks to finance M&A transactions and raising foreign direct investment limits, are expected to boost dealmaking [3][5]