MicroStrategy Was the Worst Performing Nasdaq-100 Stock in 2025. Should You Buy the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - MicroStrategy (MSTR) is experiencing a significant decline in stock performance amid a broader "crypto winter," with Bitcoin prices dropping sharply, leading MSTR to potentially finish 2025 as the worst-performing Nasdaq-100 stock [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - MSTR stock is down approximately 65% from its year-to-date high in mid-July [2]. - The enterprise net asset value (mNAV) of MSTR is nearing a negative value, indicating a critical valuation point [1]. - The consensus rating for MSTR remains at "Strong Buy," with a mean target price of around $490, suggesting a potential upside of over 200% [8]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Experts, including Jeff Kilburg, believe that Bitcoin will rebound above $100,000 in the near term, which could positively impact MSTR due to its status as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin [3][4]. - The ongoing weakness in Bitcoin is viewed as a normal market behavior, with historical trends indicating a strong recovery after pullbacks [5]. - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 may enhance investor risk appetite, potentially benefiting MSTR [6]. Group 3: Options Data and Technical Indicators - Options data suggests a potential 23.1% price movement for MSTR shares in either direction, indicating volatility and possible trading near $200 within the next three months [6]. - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) for MSTR is showing signs of a near-term rebound, despite current trading below major moving averages [5].