国际观察｜金价飙涨中的世界经济趋势观察

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 witnessed a historic bull market in gold, with international gold prices surging over 70% during the year, driven by multiple global economic challenges and a significant shift in global development confidence [1][2]. Price Trends - In 2025, gold prices reached unprecedented levels, with both futures and spot gold nearing $4,600 per ounce by year-end, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis [2]. - The upward trend in gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with significant annual gains exceeding 25% in 2020 and 2024 [2]. - By March 2025, gold prices surpassed $3,000, and by October, they exceeded $4,000, culminating in a record high near $4,600 by the end of the year [2]. Economic Context - The surge in gold prices reflects heightened global risk aversion and a lack of economic confidence, despite forecasts indicating that global economic growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are not expected to slow significantly [3]. - Major risks to the global economy stem from the U.S.-initiated trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4]. - Key factors include the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. government's trade wars, which have collectively heightened market demand for gold as a hedge against risk [4]. - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility, exacerbated by the U.S. government's debt issues and aggressive monetary policies, has been a significant driver of gold price increases [4]. Central Bank Actions - In response to dollar credit risks, central banks worldwide have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [5]. - By 2024, gold accounted for 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro's 16%, with net purchases of gold by central banks exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, setting a historical record [5]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts since September 2024 have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [5]. Historical Perspective - Historically, gold has served as a traditional safe-haven asset, gaining investor favor during times of turmoil [7]. - The relationship between gold prices and economic cycles indicates that during economic downturns or crises, investors tend to flock to gold for preservation of value, leading to price increases [7][8]. - The current surge in gold prices is seen as part of a broader trend reflecting complex global dynamics and the potential for gold to become a long-term asset rather than merely a cyclical hedge [8].