国际观察丨金价飙涨中的世界经济趋势观察

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historic bull market in gold prices in 2025, which saw an increase of over 70% during the year, driven by multiple global economic challenges and a shift in international order [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In 2025, gold prices surged, reaching nearly $4,600 per ounce by year-end, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis [2]. - The upward trend in gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with significant annual gains exceeding 25% in 2020 and 2024 [2]. - Other precious metals also saw substantial price increases, with silver prices rising approximately 150% and platinum surpassing $2,300 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Risks - The rise in gold prices reflects heightened global risk aversion and a lack of economic confidence, despite forecasts indicating that global economic growth rates for 2025 and 2026 may not significantly slow down [3]. - Major risks to the global economy stem from the U.S.-initiated trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The demand for gold has increased as a safe-haven asset, reflecting a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4]. - Key factors contributing to the current bull market include the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. trade war, which have all heightened market risks [4]. - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility, exacerbated by high levels of U.S. government debt and aggressive monetary policies, has driven investors towards gold [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [5]. - In 2024, gold accounted for 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% share, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year [5]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, gold has served as a traditional safe-haven asset, gaining favor during times of economic turmoil [6]. - The current surge in gold prices is indicative of a complex interplay of economic challenges, geopolitical risks, and a potential shift towards gold as a long-term asset rather than a temporary hedge [7].