人民币中间价年内涨约1600点 未来双向波动是常态

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, driven by multiple factors, and anticipates a moderate appreciation trend for the RMB in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate was raised by 60 points to 7.0288, marking the highest level since September 30, 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 1,596 basis points, or 2.22% [1]. - In December, both onshore and offshore RMB against the USD showed a significant strengthening trend, with onshore RMB appreciating approximately 3,000 basis points and offshore RMB about 3,500 basis points, representing increases of 4% and 5% respectively [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Analysts attribute the RMB's current appreciation to a weak USD, seasonal factors, and the resilience of the domestic economy, alongside the central bank's stable exchange rate policies and year-end settlement demand [1][4]. - The overall depreciation of the USD, which fell about 10% in 2025, is expected to be the worst annual performance since 2003, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the RMB is expected to experience multiple favorable factors that may lead to a moderate appreciation trend, although the pace of appreciation may slow down after a strong short-term performance [7]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining liquidity and ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth, while also allowing the market to play a decisive role in exchange rate formation [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The current market dynamics suggest that while the RMB may continue to appreciate, it is essential for foreign trade enterprises to avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and instead utilize financial instruments to manage exchange rate risks [7][8]. - The ongoing improvements in the cross-border payment system and the restructuring of US-China hard power comparisons are expected to gradually correct the systemic undervaluation of the RMB [7].