午评：沪指跌0.07% AI应用方向领涨 化纤板块跌幅靠前

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices opened slightly higher on December 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a maximum increase of 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.28% at one point, but later showed a downward trend leading to a slight decline at midday [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3962.24 points, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of approximately 528.4 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13513.21 points, down 0.67%, with a trading volume of about 783.7 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3207.24 points, down 1.10%, with a trading volume of around 350.3 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - At the opening, sectors such as rental and purchase rights, AI glasses, and Hainan Free Trade Zone saw significant gains, while sectors like chemical fiber, digital currency, and cross-border payments experienced notable declines [1] - By midday, the AI application sector led the gains, influenced by a 20% surge in BlueFocus, while sectors such as chemical fiber, communication equipment, and agriculture faced the largest declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates that the "Two New" policy will officially launch in 2026, optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation methods, aligning with market expectations. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have announced the early issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old vehicles [3] - Huatai Securities highlights the volatility in the communication sector in 2025, driven by AI computing power narratives and geopolitical impacts, but expects a return to industry trend pricing logic in 2026, focusing on AI computing power as a primary investment theme [3] - Dongwu Securities notes the rapid evolution of the space computing industry, emphasizing its strategic value in addressing global computing resource bottlenecks, with significant investments from tech giants and innovative companies [4] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced the implementation details for the 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy, expanding the support scope compared to 2025, with subsidies up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping and 15,000 yuan for replacement [5] Economic Indicators - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December indicates an overall economic recovery, with manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, and a composite PMI output index at 50.7%, all showing increases from the previous month [6] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, reflecting a significant improvement in the construction industry's outlook, driven by favorable weather conditions and pre-holiday construction acceleration [6]