【财经分析】德国经济年终观察：欧洲经济火车头的“繁荣不再”与“艰难复苏”

Economic Overview - Germany is experiencing a "new normal" characterized by low growth, low investment, and low confidence, with GDP expected to decline for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024, marking the worst performance in nearly 20 years [2][3] - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be only 0.1% or even zero, indicating weak recovery expectations among the public [2] Investment Trends - German companies are significantly reducing their investment plans, particularly in manufacturing sectors such as automotive, chemicals, and mechanical engineering, with a notable decline in investment expectations [3] - A survey indicated that the annual investment expectations for German companies dropped to -9.2 points, meaning more companies plan to cut investments than to increase them [3] Labor Market Impact - The weak economic environment is adversely affecting the labor market, with major companies like Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen announcing layoffs and reducing hiring plans [3] - The Munich Institute's employment index fell to its lowest level since May 2020, reflecting a decline in recruitment intentions [3] Export Challenges - The U.S. tariff policies have severely impacted Germany's export model, leading to a significant drop in exports to the U.S., which is Germany's largest export market [5][6] - In August, exports to the U.S. fell to their lowest level since November 2021, with an average decline of 7.8% expected in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to previous years [5][6] Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery - The new German government has initiated a fiscal expansion policy, establishing a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is seen as a potential driver for economic recovery [7] - The fiscal plan could contribute up to 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth by 2026, with positive spillover effects anticipated for the Eurozone [7] Future Economic Projections - Despite the fiscal expansion, concerns remain about the long-term debt burden, with a projected budget gap of €172 billion from 2027 to 2029 [8] - Economic growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised downwards, with estimates ranging from 0.7% to 1.3%, indicating uncertainty about the effectiveness of fiscal measures [8]