市场情绪偏谨慎 螺纹钢期货价格可能承压震荡

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures market is experiencing slight declines, with the main contract reported at 3123.00 yuan, down 0.45% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the rebar market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term [1] - Guodu Futures suggests light positions ahead of the holiday, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - New Century Futures anticipates that steel prices will continue to oscillate at the bottom, influenced by recent policy changes and production plans [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of five major steel products is reported at 7.9682 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.1%, while total inventory stands at 12.5799 million tons, down 2.8% [2] - The consumption of construction materials has decreased by 3.2% week-on-week, while plate consumption has increased by 1.4% [2] - The market is shifting focus from "de-stocking in the off-season" to "timing and speed of inventory accumulation," suggesting potential pressure on prices, especially for construction materials [2] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent policy changes include export license management and a focus on controlling high-energy projects, which may create short-term positive sentiment [3] - The implementation of export licenses is expected to limit steel exports, leading to a downward adjustment in export expectations for next year [3] - The overall steel price is projected to remain under pressure due to these policy changes and the anticipated production adjustments in January [3]