化工端压力较大 液化石油气盘面上方阻力依然存在

Core Viewpoint - The LPG market is experiencing limited driving forces, with mixed factors affecting short-term fundamentals and a prevailing expectation of oversupply in the medium term [4][5]. Market Performance - As of December 31, LPG futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract priced at 4151.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [1]. Price Adjustments - Saudi Aramco announced an increase in January CP for propane and butane, with propane priced at $525/ton (up $30 from December) and butane at $520/ton (up $35 from December) [2]. - Estimated import costs for propane are around 4700 yuan/ton, while butane is approximately 4662 yuan/ton [2]. Import Data - In November 2025, China's total LPG imports reached 2.9161 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 thousand tons (0.25% decline) from October, but a year-on-year increase of 26.87% compared to the same period last year [2]. Supply Dynamics - The supply from Russia to Europe is projected to decline by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters, marking the lowest level since the early 1970s [2]. - Despite tight supply from the Middle East, domestic traders are reluctant to pay high premiums, limiting upward price movement [4]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates that while there is some support for LPG prices, significant upward movement is unlikely, with prices expected to remain volatile [5].