东海期货宏观数据观察：12月制造业PMI超预期，经济产出持续扩张

Key Points - The manufacturing PMI for December in China is 50.1%, exceeding expectations of 49.2% and the previous value of 49.2% [1][38] - The non-manufacturing PMI for December is 50.2%, above the expected 49.6% and previous 49.5% [1][38] - The composite PMI stands at 50.7%, up from 49.7% previously, indicating an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][38] Manufacturing Sector - In December, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, indicating a better-than-expected recovery in manufacturing sentiment [4][40] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small enterprises reported a decline to 48.6% [4][40] - Key industries such as high-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase in PMI from 50.1% to 52.5%, indicating strong recovery [4][40] Demand and Supply - The new orders index rose to 50.8%, marking the first increase above the critical point since the second half of the year, indicating improved market demand [12][46] - The production index increased to 51.7%, suggesting accelerated manufacturing activities [12][46] - The new export orders index improved to 49%, indicating a recovery in external demand [12][46] Price and Inventory - The purchasing price index is at 53.1%, while the factory price index is at 48.9%, reflecting a short-term increase in manufacturing prices [23][55] - Finished goods inventory index rose to 48.2%, and raw material inventory index increased to 47.8%, indicating proactive replenishment by manufacturers [23][55] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [26][59] - The construction industry saw a significant rise in its business activity index to 52.8%, reflecting a positive outlook [26][59] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.7%, showing slight improvement but still in contraction territory [26][59] Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [34][68] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are at 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a broad-based recovery [34][68]