泽连斯基的“20点”与特朗普的“95%”：“利好消息”难掩俄乌和平结构性困境

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is showing signs of potential progress towards peace, with ongoing discussions between Ukraine and the U.S. and a new peace plan proposed by Ukraine's President Zelensky [2][3]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Zelensky denied claims of a breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine talks, stating that discussions are ongoing daily [2]. - Trump announced significant progress in peace discussions, claiming that 95% of key issues have been addressed and that a potential meeting between the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine could occur [2]. - Russian officials acknowledged some consensus with the U.S. regarding the peace process, with plans to establish working groups on security and economic issues [2]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - Despite positive signals, there are structural challenges hindering substantial breakthroughs in the peace process, primarily due to irreconcilable political demands from both Russia and Ukraine [3][8]. - Russia's core demands include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from certain regions and a commitment from Ukraine not to join NATO, which Ukraine is unwilling to concede [8][9]. - Ukraine's insistence on maintaining territorial integrity and security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO complicates the negotiation landscape, as these demands conflict with Russia's geopolitical interests [9][12]. Group 3: International Dynamics - The U.S. and European nations have differing approaches to the peace process, with the U.S. pushing for a quick resolution while Europe emphasizes Ukraine's military capabilities as essential for its security [12][13]. - The lack of a unified stance among international mediators, particularly between the U.S. and Europe, undermines the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts [13].