Wolfe Research Sees Regional Gaps in Target’s (TGT) Holiday Performance

Core Insights - Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) is facing challenges in its holiday performance, with regional disparities noted by Wolfe Research, particularly underperforming compared to Walmart [2] - Activist investor Toms Capital Investment Management has made a significant investment in Target, increasing pressure on the retailer to improve its performance [3] - Target's shares have declined over 27% since the beginning of 2025, prompting the company to announce plans for a $1 billion investment in new store openings and remodels in 2026 [4] Performance Analysis - Wolfe Research's analysis indicates that Target's seasonal merchandise execution has been solid in some markets, such as Northern New Jersey, but overall performance has been uneven, particularly near Philadelphia [2] - The firm has reduced its Q4 same-store sales estimate for Target by 25 basis points due to a recent website and mobile app outage, along with regional distribution disruptions [2] Strategic Moves - In response to ongoing challenges, Target has appointed Michael Fiddelke to help revive growth amid strained household budgets and tariff uncertainties [4] - The company has also undertaken a broader restructuring, which includes cutting 1,800 corporate roles [4] Historical Context - Target has previously faced activist pressure, notably in 2009 when it engaged in a proxy battle with Pershing Square's Bill Ackman [5]