智通财经网·2025-12-31 06:11Core Viewpoint - The supply of tungsten concentrate in China is expected to continue tightening, with stable demand and growth points in military and photovoltaic sectors. Despite a potential short-term price correction, tungsten prices are projected to remain high in 2026-2027, benefiting related listed companies [1]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - China's tungsten concentrate production accounted for 80.77% of global output in 2023, with reserves making up 52.27%, both ranking first in the world [1]. - The mining of tungsten is subject to control and quota systems, with the first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 down 6.45% year-on-year, indicating a long-term trend of slowing quotas [2]. - The proportion of over-extracted tungsten in China's total production has decreased from 35.78% in 2015 to 12.63% in 2024 [2]. - The grade of tungsten ore has been declining, with the average grade dropping from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2016 [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - In 2024, domestic tungsten demand is expected to be divided as follows: hard alloys (58.51%), tungsten materials (22.61%), tungsten special steel (15.05%), and tungsten chemicals (3.83%) [3]. - Demand for hard alloys has been steadily increasing, and military spending is expected to drive further growth in tungsten demand due to ongoing global conflicts [3]. - Photovoltaic tungsten wire, while small in volume, is anticipated to grow rapidly [3]. Group 3: Price and Substitution Effects - Short-term price increases in tungsten may lead to some substitution, with alternatives for hard alloy tools including high-speed steel and ceramics, and for photovoltaic tungsten wire, steel wire [4]. - The position of hard alloys in the tool industry is expected to remain strong due to advancements in digitalization and better management practices [4]. - As silicon prices stabilize, the cost-effectiveness of tungsten wire is expected to improve, leading to a recovery in affected demand [4]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Future supply-demand balance assessments indicate that both China's and global tungsten markets will remain in a tight balance, with supply-demand gaps projected at -3.78%, -4.61%, and -1.46% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The global supply-demand gaps are projected at -3.11%, -3.78%, and -1.48% for the same years [5]. - Rising mining costs due to environmental pressures are expected to support high tungsten prices [5].