拉锯4年，这场冲突为何难终结？

Core Viewpoint - The Ukraine crisis, entering its fourth year in 2025, remains characterized by intense military confrontation and complex diplomatic negotiations, with a potential for a fragile ceasefire but significant challenges to achieving a lasting peace agreement [1][5]. Group 1: Military Situation - In 2025, both Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in fierce battles, utilizing missiles, drones, and electronic warfare, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia and Kupiansk regions, leading to a prolonged war of attrition [1]. - Russia maintains an offensive position while Ukraine is on the defensive, indicating a stalemate where no single battle can decisively shift the overall war dynamics [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts - The political landscape for resolving the Ukraine crisis has strengthened, with a notable "fighting while negotiating" approach emerging, especially after the Trump administration's shift in U.S. policy towards Ukraine [2][3]. - The U.S. has ceased unconditional aid to Ukraine and pressured it, causing Europe to accelerate its support for Ukraine to ensure its interests are represented in negotiations [2]. Group 3: Core Issues in Negotiations - Key unresolved issues include territorial claims, security guarantees, and the European security architecture, with Russia demanding full military control over the Donbas region and Ukraine seeking NATO membership and military support from the West [3]. - The lack of consensus on these core issues has hindered political resolution, with the U.S. struggling to exert effective pressure on both sides [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite indications from President Putin of a willingness to negotiate, achieving a comprehensive peace agreement remains highly challenging, with the potential for a fragile ceasefire in 2026 but no guarantee of lasting peace [5][7]. - The ongoing military and economic pressures on both Russia and Ukraine, along with the geopolitical dynamics involving the U.S. and Europe, will significantly influence the negotiation outcomes and the potential for future conflicts [7].