五矿证券：光伏需求中短期受限 “两海”指引风电成长趋势

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wenkang Securities indicates that the demand for photovoltaic (PV) energy is currently weak, with production declining in recent months. The domestic market is constrained by electricity prices, while the European market faces challenges due to insufficient grid infrastructure. The U.S. market is hindered by the rapid decline of subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, leading to overall weak demand across these regions [1][3]. Photovoltaic Industry - Short-term demand for photovoltaic energy is weak, with production continuously declining in recent months. The domestic market is limited by electricity pricing, while the European market is affected by inadequate grid facilities. The U.S. market is facing challenges due to the rapid reduction of subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, resulting in weak demand overall [1][3]. - The focus of the industry is shifting towards the supply side, with "anti-involution" measures leading to improved pricing in the supply chain. The prices in the upstream sector have returned to reasonable levels, and there is an upward trend in the mid and downstream sectors. The estimated component price is between 0.80 to 0.85 yuan/W, assuming a net profit margin of 5% across various segments [3]. - Investment opportunities are primarily found in the valuation recovery driven by anti-involution measures and advancements in new technologies, such as the copper-to-silver cost reduction scheme and the industrialization of perovskite technology [3][5]. Wind Power Industry - The demand for wind power is mainly concentrated in the European market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% for onshore wind and 34% for offshore wind. Current data on European wind power orders and Final Investment Decisions (FID) show significant growth, particularly with offshore wind FID amounts increasing by 1.8 times year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. - The wind turbine bidding prices have been rising since Q3 2024, indicating an improvement in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers. The trend towards larger wind turbines is expected to ease price pressures, leading to sustained profitability improvements [4]. - The global wind power supply chain is primarily located in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being the core of this supply chain. Many components needed by the European and American markets, such as gearboxes, blades, converters, turbines, and tower foundations, are sourced from China, providing opportunities for Chinese wind power companies to expand internationally [4]. - Several companies have begun to establish production capacity in overseas markets, with some already achieving significant revenue from international operations, which supports their overall performance. This trend is expected to continue [4][5].