Roivant Sciences(US:ROIV) 智通财经网·2025-12-31 06:49Core Insights - Jefferies published an in-depth report focusing on the investment prospects of Roivant Sciences (ROIV.US), highlighting three key catalysts and valuation logic that could significantly impact the company's stock price by 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Catalysts - The first catalyst involves a patent lawsuit related to LNP technology with Moderna (MRNA.US) and Pfizer (PFE.US), with a trial set to begin on March 9, 2026. Conservative estimates suggest Roivant could receive $2-4.5 billion in damages based on a 5% royalty from total COVID-19 vaccine revenues of $60-130 billion [1] - The second catalyst is the Phase II clinical trial data for Pulmovant's PH-ILD treatment, which could lead to a Phase III trial if the data shows a reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) of over 20%. The Phase III trial is expected to start in the first half of 2027, with results anticipated in 2030 [2] - The third catalyst is the Phase III trial data for Priovant's brepo drug, which has been moved up to the second half of 2026. If brepo captures 30-50% of the market for non-infectious uveitis (NIU) patients, peak sales could reach $1.5-3 billion [2] Group 2: Valuation Analysis - Jefferies utilized a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the expected compensation from the LNP lawsuit at $2.5-3 billion, with Roivant's share being $1.5-2 billion. The market value of the IMVT subsidiary is estimated at $5.4 billion, adjusted to $5.1 billion after accounting for cash [3] - The brepo drug is valued at $1.75 billion in peak sales, with a 5x price-to-earnings ratio and a 95% success rate, leading to a valuation of $6.25 billion for Roivant's stake [3] - Overall, the valuation framework indicates a clear picture, with current cash of $4.4 billion and projected cash of $3.7 billion, supporting a "buy" rating with a target price of $24, representing a 10.95% upside from the latest closing price of $21.63 [3]