高力国际：北京写字楼面临“西部新质热浪”与“东部红海求生”

Core Insights - The Beijing office market is experiencing a significant supply-demand mismatch, with over 700,000 square meters of new supply expected in 2026, while demand is concentrated in the western submarket, despite 90% of new projects being located in the eastern submarket [1][3] - The demand recovery in the Beijing office market has exceeded expectations, with a net absorption of approximately 83,000 square meters in Q4, leading to a total annual net absorption of 330,000 square meters, indicating a strong demand support [1] - The average effective rent has decreased to 222 RMB per square meter per month, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year decline, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to the previous year [1] Market Highlights - The Zhongguancun area has emerged as the biggest highlight in the Beijing office market, with a net absorption of over 176,000 square meters, accounting for 53% of the city's total, marking a peak in nearly 20 years [2] - Despite stable annual demand exceeding 300,000 square meters, the overall high vacancy rates and ongoing rent adjustments indicate that the market has not yet reversed the downward trends [2] - The rental decline in core mature submarkets has generally exceeded 10%, highlighting a significant regional disparity in market performance [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic demand deficiency is expected to continue to constrain the recovery of the office market in 2026, with potential tenant downsizing and lease terminations anticipated [3] - The expected increase in supply in the core market will likely lead to a rise in vacancy rates by year-end, exacerbating the existing supply-demand mismatch [3]