债市日报：12月31日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market ended weakly on the last trading day of 2025, with government bond futures declining across the board and interbank bond yields rising by approximately 1 basis point. The liquidity situation is expected to improve after the year-end, with a focus on economic performance in early 2026 and potential inflation data around the Spring Festival. The monetary policy is likely to remain neutral, while issues regarding demand for long-term and ultra-long-term bonds need to be addressed, but yield levels, spreads, and term spreads are expected to remain stable [1]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.35% at 111.41, the 10-year main contract down 0.07% at 107.86, the 5-year main contract down 0.04% at 105.76, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% at 102.454 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 2.2775%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.15 basis points to 1.9505%, and the 7-year government bond yield up by 1.05 basis points to 1.738% [2]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 5288 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 5028 billion yuan for the day after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates rose across the board, with the overnight rate up by 8.0 basis points to 1.327%, the 7-day rate up by 36.7 basis points to 1.956%, the 14-day rate up by 8.2 basis points to 1.951%, and the 1-month rate up by 0.3 basis points to 1.588% [4]. Economic Indicators - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for December was 50.1%, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, all showing an increase from the previous month and indicating an overall recovery in economic sentiment [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates a moderate growth in government bond supply in 2026, with concentrated net supply pressure expected in the second quarter. New general bond issuance is expected to maintain a slow pace, while new special bond issuance may peak towards the end of the second quarter [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income notes that the bond market adjustment is primarily driven by trading factors and medium-term supply-demand concerns, with market sentiment appearing fragile. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a "volatile and weak" market [6]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that demand for credit bonds may remain stable, with expectations of continued growth in demand post-year-end due to financial products and the "opening red" period, despite fluctuations in government bond yields [7].