Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang·2025-12-31 07:37Core Viewpoint - The "Qihang·2025 Financial Annual Conference" highlighted the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of 2026 for China's economy and capital markets, which are expected to enter a recovery phase and experience significant growth opportunities [1][2]. Economic Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point as China moves away from inflation lows and establishes a new economic equilibrium, with expectations of a recovery cycle in the economy and capital markets [2]. - The "Fifteen Five" period is projected to be a golden era for both the Chinese economy and capital markets, with significant improvements in overall productivity and advancements in technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors [3]. Inflation and Commodity Prices - The CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.5, with the possibility of higher figures, while the PPI may turn positive in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The "pig oil resonance" phenomenon is predicted, where pork prices will significantly influence the CPI, and oil prices are expected to remain supported due to geopolitical risks and limited production increases from OPEC+ [2][3]. Capital Market Insights - The capital market is expected to enter a golden age during the "Fifteen Five" period, with foreign investment becoming a crucial source of incremental capital [4]. - The future of the Chinese stock market looks promising, with continuous inflow of new capital being a key factor for a sustained bull market [4]. - To surpass the 2015 market peak, the daily trading volume in the A-share market needs to reach between 2.5 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, supported by regulatory policies aimed at attracting long-term capital [4].