西南酒价年度图谱：价格失守、库存高企，白酒明年靠啥翻盘？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market in 2025 is facing dual pressures of "price stability" and "inventory reduction," leading to a challenging environment for the industry. The market is experiencing a shift from "volume and price increase" to "price stability for survival" as major brands see a decline in prices and face high inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The key terms for 2025 are "price stability" and "inventory reduction," with companies focusing on maintaining a stable pricing system to boost market confidence and product value [2]. - Major liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have seen significant price drops, with Moutai falling from over 2500 yuan to below 2000 yuan per bottle, and Wuliangye dropping from nearly 1000 yuan to below 900 yuan [2]. - Inventory levels among 20 A-share listed liquor companies reached 168.39 billion yuan, an increase of 19.29 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continuing upward trend in inventory [2]. Group 2: Inventory Challenges - The meaning of inventory has shifted for liquor distributors from being a source of profit to a burden, as high inventory levels lead to increased storage and management costs [3]. - Companies are moving away from traditional inventory pressure tactics and are actively assisting distributors in reducing inventory, but this poses a balancing act as aggressive inventory reduction can depress market prices [3]. Group 3: Price Control Strategies - The "control quantity and protect price" strategy has become crucial, with companies like Wuliangye reducing contract volumes by 0% to 50% for certain channels to maintain price stability [4]. - Various companies have implemented strict measures against price chaos and counterfeit products, including fines and termination of partnerships with non-compliant distributors [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook for 2026 - In December 2025, major liquor companies held meetings to outline strategies for 2026, emphasizing the importance of channel profits and a shift towards a sustainable profit model rather than short-term gains [7][8]. - Companies are focusing on consumer-centric strategies, with an emphasis on young consumers and innovative marketing approaches to adapt to changing consumption patterns [9][10]. - The industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand dynamics in 2026, with analysts suggesting a gradual recovery in sales and pricing [10][11].