告别疲软？美工商贷款回暖，商业地产贷款增速仍低于历史均值

Core Insights - Jefferies recently released a report on the U.S. banking sector, commenting on H.8 loan data and interest rate updates, indicating a loan growth of 1.4% for Q4 2025 year-to-date, surpassing the historical average of 1.1% over the past decade and matching the growth rate of 1.3% from Q3 2025 [1][4] Loan Growth Analysis - The average loan growth for commercial and industrial loans (C&I) including non-depository financial institutions (NDFI) for Q4 2025 year-to-date is 2.1%, significantly higher than the historical trend of 0.7% for this category [1][5] - Commercial real estate loans (CRE) have shown a year-to-date growth of 0.7%, which is below the historical average of 1.4% [1][6] Consumer and Residential Loans - Consumer loans have experienced a year-to-date growth of 1.6% in Q4 2025, up from 0.9% in Q3 2025, primarily driven by small banks with a growth rate of 2.4% [5] - Residential real estate loans have shown a modest growth of 0.6% year-to-date in Q4 2025, slightly down from 0.7% in Q3 2025 [5][6] Deposits and Borrowings - As of December 17, total deposits increased by $97 billion, a growth of 0.6%, reaching a total of $17.4 trillion, with large banks contributing $93 billion to this increase [6] - Total borrowings rose by $11 billion, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 0.9%, with large banks' borrowings increasing by $13 billion [6]