铜价创2009年以来最大年度涨幅 投行预计明年仍有上涨空间

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged by 42% since the beginning of 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 2009, driven by supply-demand concerns, the AI boom, and tariff-related issues [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of Tuesday, the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange hovered around $12,222 per ton, slightly down from a record high of $12,960 per ton [3][9]. - The price increase of 42% from the beginning of the year represents the best annual performance since the Great Depression [8][9]. Group 2: Key Drivers - The AI boom is a significant factor, as copper is a critical component in data center construction, making it a related investment in the AI investment surge [4][10]. - Supply-demand imbalances are pressuring the copper industry, with multiple challenges on the supply side and growing demand driven by electrification [4][10]. - U.S. tariffs on certain copper and copper-based products, announced by President Donald Trump, have injected strong upward momentum into copper prices [4][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Analysts, including David Rosenberg, indicate that the strong performance of copper prices is largely due to ongoing market concerns about supply shortages [4][10]. - The overall rise in the metal sector, with gold prices increasing by 64% this year, has also contributed to the upward trend in copper prices [4][10]. - Wall Street analysts believe that the upward momentum in copper prices is unlikely to dissipate in the short term [4][10]. Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts from JPMorgan expect copper prices to rise to around $12,500 per ton in the first half of next year, driven by increased AI demand and potential tariff cancellations [5][11]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices could exceed $15,000 per ton in the next decade, indicating a 22% upside from current levels, citing unique supply constraints and strong structural demand growth [6][12].