2025年北京写字楼市场需求复苏态势超预期 中关村板块成为年度最大亮点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Beijing office market is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a significant reduction in vacancy rates by the end of 2025, driven by a net absorption of approximately 83,000 square meters in Q4, leading to an annual total of 330,000 square meters [1] - The new supply of Grade A office space in Beijing for 2025 is limited to 188,000 square meters, which, combined with steady demand, has resulted in a decrease in the vacancy rate to 19.2%, down by about 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average effective rent has decreased to 222 RMB per square meter per month, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year decline, although the rate of decline has narrowed by 4.9% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The Zhongguancun area has emerged as the biggest highlight of the year, with net absorption of Grade A office space exceeding 176,000 square meters, accounting for 53% of the city's total, marking a peak in nearly 20 years [2] - Despite stable annual demand exceeding 300,000 square meters in the overall Grade A market, high vacancy rates and declining rents persist, indicating a significant regional disparity in market performance [2] - The average rent in mature submarkets of core areas has seen a decline of over 10% year-on-year, with intensified competition across asset classes and market segments, indicating a shift towards refined competition in the industry [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the market may face challenges with tenant downsizing and relocations, particularly among large state-owned enterprises, which could offset the positive impacts of new demand [3] - The new supply in core markets is expected to exceed 700,000 square meters, with demand concentrated in the western submarkets while 90% of new projects are located in the eastern submarkets, leading to intensified competition and a mismatch in supply and demand geographically [3] - The rental price center in the Beijing office market is expected to remain under pressure, and achieving supply-demand rebalancing will be a long and challenging process, necessitating government intervention and innovative management approaches from market participants [3]