“启航·2025金融年会”在京举办 机构预计中国经济和资本市场将迎黄金时代

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to mark a golden era for both the Chinese economy and capital markets, with significant opportunities arising as the country transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][6]. Economic Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the Chinese economy, marking the end of the inflation low point and establishing a new equilibrium [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to stabilize around 0.5, with the possibility of higher figures, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 [5]. Capital Market Insights - The capital market is expected to enter a golden era during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with foreign investment becoming a crucial source of incremental capital [6]. - Historical examples, such as South Korea's recovery post-1998 Asian financial crisis, illustrate the potential for significant foreign capital inflow into China, which could enhance market performance [5]. Market Dynamics - The "pig oil resonance" phenomenon is anticipated, where pork prices significantly influence CPI, while oil prices are expected to impact both CPI and PPI due to geopolitical risks and limited production capacity from OPEC+ [4]. - Continuous policy efforts by regulatory bodies to attract long-term capital are seen as essential for supporting a sustained bull market in Chinese equities [7].