中金：首次覆盖裕元集团(00551)给予“跑赢行业”评级 目标价19.46港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC's report highlights Yuanyuan Group (00551) as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, with a strong presence in the Greater China athletic footwear and apparel retail market, and a diversified global production base. The report initiates coverage with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E for 2026 [1]. Industry Overview - The athletic shoe industry has significant growth potential and is becoming increasingly concentrated. According to Euromonitor, the global athletic shoe market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth rate expected over the next five years. The top 10 brands are anticipated to hold a 57% market share by 2025, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]. Company Positioning - Yuanyuan Group is the largest athletic shoe manufacturer globally, with an estimated shipment share exceeding 10%. Its subsidiary, Pou Sheng International, is a leading athletic footwear and apparel retailer in Greater China. In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be USD 818 million and USD 39 million, respectively, with the manufacturing segment accounting for 69% of revenue and 89% of net profit [2]. Development Capabilities - The company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, allowing it to establish deep partnerships with major international brands such as Nike and Adidas, as well as long-term collaborations with Asics, New Balance, Salomon, and Arc'teryx. The top five clients are expected to contribute 80-90% of manufacturing revenue [3]. Manufacturing Business Outlook - With overseas brand inventories at manageable levels and accelerated product innovation, the manufacturing business is expected to return to stable growth. The reduction of tariff disruptions by 2026 and the improvement of previously uneven capacity utilization are anticipated to enhance manufacturing performance [4]. Market Differentiation - The company is expected to benefit from actively optimizing its client base and structure, which could lead to renewed growth. The combination of development capabilities and global production layout is projected to provide earnings certainty. The forecasted dividend yield for 2026 is 8.2%, offering a margin of safety. Potential catalysts include the recovery of client orders and better-than-expected production efficiency [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026. The current stock price corresponds to an 8.6x P/E for 2026. Based on a 10.5x P/E for 2026, the target price of HKD 19.46 indicates a 23% upside from the current level, with an "outperform" rating initiated [6].