Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing economic challenges faced by Germany, characterized by low growth, low investment, and low confidence, leading to a "new normal" for the economy [2][3][4] - Germany's GDP has experienced consecutive negative growth in 2023 and 2024, marking the worst performance in nearly 20 years, with expectations for only 0.1% growth in 2025 [2][3] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in automotive and chemical industries, is seeing a significant reduction in investment plans, with a notable decline in investment expectations reported at negative 9.2 points [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. tariff policies have severely impacted Germany's export model, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly, averaging a decline of 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to previous years [5][6] - The new German federal government's fiscal expansion, including a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure, is seen as a potential driver for economic recovery, with projections suggesting it could contribute up to 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth by 2026 [7][8] - Despite the potential benefits of fiscal spending, concerns remain regarding the long-term debt burden, with a projected budget gap of €172 billion from 2027 to 2029, and revised growth forecasts for 2026 ranging from 0.7% to 1.3% [8]
德国经济年终观察：欧洲经济火车头的“繁荣不再”与“艰难复苏”
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-12-31 08:35