长江有色：31日锡价上涨 假期临至轻仓观望看向节后交易

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing volatility with prices showing a "roller coaster" trend due to weak seasonal demand, high inventory pressure, and year-end risk aversion among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 opened at 327,910 CNY/ton, peaked at 331,950 CNY/ton, and closed at 322,920 CNY/ton, down 1,460 CNY, a decrease of 0.45% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract was 297,836 lots, with open interest at 37,828 lots, a decrease of 5,841 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot tin price in the Yangtze River market reported an average of 325,900 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,300 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a structural balance, with Myanmar's resumption of production and Indonesia's export recovery providing marginal increases, while domestic smelting is constrained by raw material shortages and low processing fees [2]. - Demand is weak in traditional sectors like consumer electronics, while emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and AI servers show resilience, although high prices are suppressing purchasing willingness [2]. - The divergence between spot prices rising slightly due to some merchants replenishing stock and significant declines in futures prices indicates a deep market struggle between short-term weaknesses and long-term expectations [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term, tin prices are expected to continue a volatile adjustment trend, primarily pressured by inventory accumulation and year-end capital withdrawal, but cost and long-term logic will limit downside potential [3]. - In the medium to long term, after the seasonal downturn ends and inventory shows a clear reduction, the focus will shift back to supply constraints and growth in emerging demand, potentially leading to a stronger price trend driven by fundamentals [3]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious, maintaining light positions and observing the speed of inventory reduction and recovery of downstream orders post-holiday [3].