“别人贪婪我恐惧”？华尔街齐声看涨之际，专家逆势警告：美股将出现逾10%回调

Core Viewpoint - Dividend Seeker predicts a potential decline of 10% or more in the S&P 500 index by early to mid-2026, citing high valuations and market optimism as key factors for this cautious outlook [1][18]. Group 1: Reasons for Expected Decline - Reason 1: Market Optimism - The widespread optimism among analysts and market participants is seen as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a market correction may be imminent [1][3][5]. - Reason 2: High Relative Valuation of S&P 500 - The S&P 500 index is currently valued significantly higher than its peers, with a notable underperformance compared to Canadian and European markets, which have seen over 30% gains [6][8][9]. - Reason 3: Increased Volatility in Election Years - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are expected to contribute to greater market volatility, historically leading to larger average corrections [11][14]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investment in Non-U.S. Stocks - Dividend Seeker advocates for increasing exposure to UK and European stocks, which are perceived as undervalued and offer attractive returns [10][17]. - Allocation to Gold - Gold is recommended as a key asset due to its status as a safe haven amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with expectations of continued price increases [15][17]. - Bond Market Opportunities - The bond market is viewed favorably, with high yields providing opportunities for investors to lock in returns before potential declines [15][17].