环氧丙烷：2025年上半年承压，下半年表现尚可

Core Viewpoint - The epoxy propylene market is experiencing steady growth in production capacity and output, but demand remains weak, characterized by a "strong season not strong, weak season not weak" scenario, with domestic demand sluggish and export growth providing temporary support [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the domestic epoxy propylene market showed volatility, with prices exhibiting a "W" trend due to low prices impacting the market after the stable operation of the Binhua Phase II expansion [2] - After the Spring Festival, high inventory levels led to a continuous decline in epoxy propylene prices, which only began to recover as end customers returned to the market [2] - The market faced significant impacts from tariffs, particularly in April, leading to a near halt in exports and continued weak domestic demand, resulting in a drop in epoxy propylene prices to annual lows [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the second half of the year, supply-side support became the main driver, with prices showing an upward trend due to limited supply-demand variables [3] - July saw a stable price environment, but by August, the market faced pressure from increased supply expectations, leading to price declines [3] - By September, supply-side support strengthened due to production halts at several facilities, leading to a tightening of the market and subsequent price increases [3] Group 3: Price Fluctuations - October experienced a tightening of supply post-National Day, with prices primarily increasing, but by late October, high prices led to a cautious market sentiment among end customers [3] - In November and December, unexpected fluctuations in supply and external procurement by large manufacturers influenced market sentiment, keeping prices within the range of 7700-8000 yuan/ton [4][6]