Mhy20251231油脂晚评：减产与月底出口爆冷拉锯

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining the export tax at $74 per ton and imposing an additional 10% export levy on crude palm oil [1] - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield for December 1-25, 2025, decreased by 8.49% month-on-month, with an oil extraction rate down by 0.12% and total production down by 9.12% compared to the same period last month [1] Palm Oil Export Data Update - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from 1,316,455 tons in the previous month. For December 1-25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, an increase of 1.6% from 1,041,935 tons [2] - AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from 1,263,298 tons, while for December 1-25, exports were 1,017,897 tons, up 3% from 987,978 tons [2] - SGS projected Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-25 at 824,276 tons, an increase of 41.25% compared to the previous month [2] Daily Soybean Oil Spot Prices - Various regions in China reported soybean oil prices, with prices ranging from 8,170 to 8,610 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan across different locations [4] Market Review - As of December 31, multiple institutions reported a month-on-month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports, putting pressure on palm oil futures. However, the potential for a reduction in export reference prices and taxes at the end of the month may incentivize delaying shipments to the next month for profit [5]