2025最后一天，贵金属市场遭遇沉重一击

Market Overview - On December 31, the global precious metals market experienced significant turmoil, with spot silver dropping over 7% and platinum falling more than 12% in a single day [1][3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for precious metal futures for the second time, causing investor concern about the sustainability of the recent price surge [1][7] Price Movements - Spot silver fell below $71 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 5%, closing at $72.12 per ounce [3] - Other precious metals also saw substantial declines, with platinum dropping over 11% and palladium down more than 5% [3] - Gold prices also decreased, with COMEX gold experiencing a drop of over 1% [5] Regulatory Actions - The CME's recent margin increase is aimed at cooling down the rapidly rising precious metals market, following a previous increase on December 12 [7][8] - This regulatory action requires traders to provide more collateral, thereby limiting market leverage and reflecting concerns over market volatility [8] - Domestic regulatory bodies, such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, have also adjusted trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures [9][10] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent declines in precious metals are primarily due to technical factors, including profit-taking by long positions and forced deleveraging amid stricter margin requirements [12] - Despite the recent pullback, gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by strong central bank purchases and continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [12] - The long-term outlook for silver remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with a projected supply gap of over 100 million ounces by 2025 [12] - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 16,400 tons as of December 26, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [12] Future Outlook - Analysts from Jinrui Futures believe that the recent price drop is a significant shakeout in the bull market, suggesting that once speculative bubbles are cleared, market pricing may return to being driven by fundamentals [12] - Optimistic forecasts from Wall Street economist Peter Schiff suggest that silver prices could exceed $100 per ounce in the coming year [14]