Fed Survey Sees About $220 Billion in Bill Buying Over 12 Months

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating Treasury bill purchases exceeding $200 billion over the next 12 months to alleviate pressures in money markets, with an average expectation of net purchases around $220 billion from survey respondents [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed decided to commence Treasury bill purchases after identifying that reserves in the financial system had fallen to levels deemed insufficient, as indicated by rising short-term funding costs [2]. - The Fed plans to buy approximately $40 billion of T-bills monthly, having already purchased about $38 billion this month, with additional operations scheduled for January [4]. - The decision to halt the reduction of its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening, was made in response to increasing signs of stress in the $12.6 trillion repurchase agreement market [6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Rising money market rates have been observed, increasing more rapidly compared to the Fed's administered rates than during the previous balance-sheet unwinding period from 2017 to 2019 [5]. - Concerns have been raised regarding inadequate liquidity potentially disrupting essential financial market functions, which could undermine the Fed's rate-setting capabilities and lead to broader market implications [7]. Group 3: Reserve Management Strategy - The December meeting minutes revealed discussions among Fed officials on targeting an appropriate level of bank reserves, with some suggesting a focus on money-market rates relative to interest on reserve balances rather than a specific reserve level [8].