美联储调查：未来12个月美债购买规模预计达2200亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a total of over $200 billion in reserve management bond purchases over the next 12 months to alleviate pressure in the money market [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to start purchasing U.S. Treasury securities due to rising short-term financing costs and a decline in the financial system's reserves to critical levels [1][5]. - The average expected net purchase scale for the first 12 months after the bond purchase initiation is approximately $220 billion, despite significant differences in estimates among respondents [5]. - The Federal Reserve plans to commence Treasury purchases at a rate of about $40 billion per month, with a gradual reduction thereafter [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The repurchase market, which previously reached $12.6 trillion, has shown signs of liquidity pressure, prompting the Federal Reserve to halt its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) [2][5]. - There is a concern that severe liquidity shortages could disrupt the core clearing system of financial markets and weaken the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rate policies [6]. Group 3: Discussions Among Federal Reserve Officials - Federal Reserve officials discussed how to accurately anchor the desired reserve levels in the financial system, suggesting that monitoring the spread between money market rates and reserve balance rates may be more effective than setting specific reserve thresholds [6]. - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 3.77% on December 29, which is 12 basis points higher than the Federal Reserve's reserve balance rate [6]. Group 4: Tools and Strategies - Some Federal Reserve officials believe that the standing repurchase tool could play a more active role in interest rate management and help maintain a lower average balance sheet size [6]. - However, there is resistance among market participants to increase the use of the standing repurchase tool due to the stigma associated with borrowing directly from the central bank [7].