商品日报（12月31日）：沪镍、沪铝携手涨超2% 贵金属全线回落铂钯继续大跌

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on December 31 saw more declines than gains, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1571.11 points, down 12.62 points or 0.80% from the previous trading day [1] - Notable gains were observed in the nickel and aluminum sectors, with the main contracts for nickel and aluminum rising over 2%, while platinum and palladium saw significant declines of over 12% and 5%, respectively [1][2] Group 2: Nickel Market Dynamics - The nickel market experienced heightened concerns due to supply-side disruptions, with overnight London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices surging, leading to a peak increase of over 4% in the Shanghai nickel main contract [3] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported a significant reduction in nickel ore approval volumes for 2026, which is expected to impact supply dynamics, potentially creating a 10-20% shortfall if production quotas remain unchanged [3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The Shanghai aluminum main contract continued its strong performance, achieving a four-day winning streak and reaching a nearly four-year high, driven by positive macroeconomic expectations [4] - Despite the positive outlook, the aluminum supply is expected to see only modest increases, with demand showing signs of weakening due to seasonal factors [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals, particularly platinum and palladium, faced significant declines, attributed to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which may weaken easing expectations [5] - The overall outlook for platinum remains cautiously optimistic due to a tight supply-demand balance projected for 2025, while palladium's demand growth appears limited [5]