Large carrier M&A proves elusive in 2025

M&A Activity in the Freight Industry - Large carriers maintained a cautious approach in 2025, focusing on asset utilization and cost-cutting, resulting in limited M&A activity among large asset-based carriers [1] - Smaller deals occurred in the trucking and logistics sectors, but significant transactions involving large carriers were scarce [1] - Serial acquirers like Heartland Express and Werner Enterprises are facing challenges in stabilizing operations amid four consecutive years of weak demand in the freight market [2] Future Outlook - Anticipation of larger deals returning in 2026 as trade conditions improve, freight volumes stabilize, and interest rates decrease [3] - Recent cost-cutting measures among carriers could enhance cash flow generation, potentially leading to a more active M&A environment in the upcoming year [3] Specific Company Developments - Schneider National typically engages in large deals every 12 to 18 months, positioning itself for a significant acquisition by summer 2026 [4] - Knight-Swift Transportation is seeking to complete a national less-than-truckload network but has encountered challenges in its recovery efforts [4] - Forward Air is exploring strategic options, including a potential sale, following pressure from shareholders and a strategic review initiated in January 2025 [6] - Forward Air faced backlash from investors after announcing the acquisition of Omni Logistics, which was perceived to dilute equity and increase debt [7] - DSV is looking to sell USA Truck, acquired during its purchase of DB Schenker, as it does not align with its asset-light business model [8]