美元年度跌幅势创八年来最大 美联储动向将左右后市

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to record its largest annual decline in eight years, driven by investor expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the next Federal Reserve chair [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen by 8.1% year-to-date [1][3]. - The dollar experienced a significant drop following Trump's announcement of "liberation day" tariffs in April, and continued to be pressured by his actions to ensure a dovish successor for the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's decisions will be the primary factor influencing the dollar's performance in the first quarter, particularly regarding the upcoming meetings in January and March, as well as the appointment of the new chair after Jerome Powell [1][2]. - The market has priced in at least two interest rate cuts for the next year, creating a divergence in policy paths between the US and some developed countries, which further diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [1][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - After a brief bullish sentiment towards the dollar, the market has reverted to a pessimistic outlook this month, with negative views dominating since the tariff announcement raised concerns about the US economy [1][3]. - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, such as Hassett, Walsh, or Waller, are being closely monitored, as their approach to interest rates could significantly impact the dollar's strength [2][4].