美股牛市第三年即将收官 历经动荡后交易员整装待来年

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is set to close with a lackluster performance, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains, while the anticipated seasonal rally has failed to materialize [1][2] Market Performance - As of 7:07 AM New York time, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, narrowing the index's 2025 gain to 17%. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.3%, and Dow futures are down 0.1% [1][2] - Silver prices have significantly declined, experiencing four consecutive days of volatility exceeding 5% [1][2] Investor Sentiment - In 2025, optimism surrounding the economic potential of artificial intelligence has driven strong returns for investors, although the journey has been turbulent due to U.S. trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over high valuations [1][2] - As December comes to a close, market momentum has faded, with traders locking in substantial profits before the holidays and deferring major decisions until after the break, leading to the absence of the expected "Santa Claus rally" [1][2] Fund Manager Insights - According to Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank, after a stellar year for the stock market and high positioning in late November, fund managers may have closed positions and adjusted their allocations based on benchmarks [1][2] - The basic expectation is that the bull market will continue, but volatility is expected to increase, ultimately resulting in mid-single-digit returns [1][2]