博道基金董事长莫泰山：2026年A股将温和上涨，科技仍是基本面主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, with structural opportunities emerging amidst a stable macroeconomic environment and improving corporate earnings [1][14]. Macroeconomic Environment - The focus for 2026 will be on expanding domestic demand and a reasonable recovery in prices, which are seen as key concerns for the macroeconomy [1][4]. - Investment in domestic demand is anticipated to stabilize and recover, with a greater emphasis on human capital investment compared to material investment [5][6]. - Consumer spending is expected to be boosted by improving corporate profits, which will positively impact residents' income over time [6][7]. Corporate Earnings and Market Valuation - Corporate earnings are projected to grow by 10%-15% in 2026, marking the highest growth rate in three years [10][14]. - Current market valuations are considered reasonable, with significant structural differentiation among sectors, indicating that various industries may benefit from the economic cycle's upward trend [10][11]. Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment in 2026 is expected to remain relatively loose, with potential monetary policy easing at the beginning of the year [2][11]. - The ongoing global liquidity conditions are likely to support the Chinese asset revaluation narrative, with the RMB expected to appreciate moderately [12][13]. Focus on Technology - The technology sector remains a critical focus for 2026, with attention on the capital expenditure plans of tech giants and the commercial progress of leading AI models [9][14]. - The anticipated advancements in AI and related applications are expected to drive significant changes in the market landscape [9]. Structural Opportunities - The market is expected to present structural opportunities beyond just technology, as various sectors may experience recovery and growth due to improving economic conditions [10][14]. - The potential for a rebound in the inventory cycle and increased capacity utilization in traditional industries is highlighted as a positive sign for corporate profitability and market performance [8][10].