ETF日报：新的一年即将开始，市场正期待春季躁动行情

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.23%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index decreased by 0.36% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 956 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 2700 stocks declined, indicating a neutral to weak risk appetite in the market [1] ETF Market Performance - By the end of 2025, China's ETF market reached a size of 6.03 trillion yuan, an increase of over 60% from 3.73 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [2][9] - The number of ETFs increased to 1396, up by 350 from 1046 at the start of the year, with over 90% of ETFs achieving positive returns and over 60% outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][9] - The top-performing ETF for 2025 was the Communication ETF (518800), which saw a year-to-date increase of 125.81% [2][9] Sector Highlights - The Mining ETF (561330) ranked third in overall ETF performance for the year, with a growth of 106.11%, driven by global liquidity easing and investments in new energy and power grids [2][10] - The CSI A500 index has gained traction as a new benchmark for Chinese equities, representing a balanced mix of traditional value and emerging growth sectors [3][10] - The CSI A500 index-related ETFs have approached a total size of 300 billion yuan, reflecting its growing popularity among investors [3][10] Future Outlook - The market anticipates a spring rally in 2026, coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with structural opportunities expected to align with policy guidance and industry prosperity [4][11] - Investors are encouraged to consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which has the highest number of accounts among its peers, as a means to access leading companies across various sectors [4][11] Bond Market Insights - The bond market remains weak, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) showing minimal fluctuations [12] - The year 2025 has been characterized by a complex environment for interest rate bonds, with expectations for a more optimistic bond market pricing in 2026 [5][12] - The decoupling of the bond market from fundamentals may ease as speculative funding's pricing power diminishes [6][13]