从减税到关税企稳：2026年美国经济有望迎来稳健增长

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy faced initial predictions of recession or "stagflation" following Trump's global tariff plan, with a GDP contraction of 0.6% in Q1, but rebounded with a growth rate of 3.8% in Q2 and 4.3% from July to September [1][5] - If the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model's prediction of 3% growth for Q4 holds true, the annual growth rate could reach 2.8%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 2.1% [1][5] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Inflation has stabilized, with a decrease to 2.7% in November, despite ongoing consumer dissatisfaction with high prices [1][5] - Consumer prices increased by approximately 2% during Trump's first year, compared to a 6% increase during Biden's first year [6] Trade Deficit and Tariff Impact - The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the lowest level since June 2020, attributed to a significant increase in exports and a slight rise in imports [7][8] - Trump attributes these improvements to the administration's trade measures, claiming a 60% reduction in the trade deficit and significant GDP growth [8] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, raising concerns about potential negative impacts on employment due to economic uncertainty [8] Future Economic Outlook - Economists express cautious optimism for 2026, with Goldman Sachs predicting a growth rate of 2.6% and BNP Paribas forecasting a consensus of 1.9% [9] - Factors supporting this outlook include fiscal stimulus from the "Inflation Reduction Act," ongoing AI capital expenditures, and a reduction in the trade deficit [9][10] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement at least one more rate cut in 2026, following three cuts in 2025, which may positively influence the economy [10] - The focus is on the Fed's ability to manage interest rate signals amid inflation concerns, with potential impacts from the anticipated replacement of the current chair [10] Economic Contributions and Risks - Continued advancements in AI, a bullish stock market forecast, and strong household balance sheets may contribute positively to GDP [10] - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are warnings of potential risks that could arise in the economic landscape [11]