创新药BD交易火热 2026年热潮能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by strong business development (BD) activities and supportive industrial policies, despite recent market adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug index has seen a year-to-date increase of nearly 70%, with individual stocks like Shuyou Shen and Sanofi Biopharma doubling in price [1][2]. - In the A-share market, stocks such as Shuyou Shen and Sanofi Biopharma have also experienced significant gains, with Shuyou Shen's price soaring nearly 7 times at one point [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market has welcomed over 20 pharmaceutical companies this year, with notable first-day performances, including a nearly 300% increase for Yinnuo Pharmaceutical [2][3]. Group 2: Business Development (BD) Trends - The number of BD projects in the Chinese innovative drug sector reached 166 by December 5, 2025, marking an increase of 54 projects from the previous year [4]. - The total amount of BD transactions has reached $141.97 billion, a growth of over 136.8% compared to 2024, with upfront payments totaling $6.3 billion, up by over 199% [4][5]. - Major deals include a $13 billion transaction between Qiguang Dekang and Biohaven, and a collaboration between Sanofi Biopharma and Pfizer worth up to $48 billion [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the innovative drug sector will continue to thrive in 2026, with a shift in focus from quantity to value in BD transactions [7]. - The industry is expected to see a selection of high-quality companies emerge as leaders, supported by a stable policy environment and improved market confidence [7][8]. - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to remain a core focus within the pharmaceutical industry, with significant benefits expected for related sectors such as CXO [7][8].