经济加速增长、就业放缓……一文速览特朗普执政2.0“首年成绩单”

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025, driven by consumer and business investment resilience, with economists predicting this trend to continue into 2026 [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the fastest economic growth in two years, although employment growth remains weak and concentrated in a few sectors [1] Labor Market - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November 2025, 0.5 percentage points higher than the expected value for that year, marking the highest level since 2021 [1] - Job growth is primarily in healthcare and social assistance, with overall employment numbers declining when excluding this sector; manufacturing has seen layoffs for seven consecutive months [1] Wage Growth - Wage growth has slowed, with indicators such as average hourly earnings and employment cost index reaching their lowest levels since 2021 [4] - 13% of employed individuals saw no wage growth compared to the previous year from April to November [4] - The unemployment rate for workers with a four-year college degree reached 2.9% in November, a historically high level without an economic recession [4] Consumer Prices - Inflation remains elevated, with the consumer price index showing a growth rate of 2.7% in November, consistent with the average for 2025 [6] - The inflation data may be influenced by a government shutdown that caused data interruptions [6] Trade Policy - Trump's administration has shifted towards protectionism, raising tariffs to the highest levels in nearly a century by 2025 [11] - Tariffs are expected to generate approximately $30 billion in monthly revenue by the end of 2025, although the overall impact remains uncertain [14] Business Investment - Business fixed investment showed solid growth in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by increased spending on computer equipment and software [15][18] - Future capital expenditures are anticipated to be boosted by Trump's "Great Beautiful Act" and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence [18]