鑫元基金年度展望：创科双指领涨超40%，2026市场主线看这里！

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a clear slow bull trend, driven by policy support and ample liquidity, with major indices showing significant gains [1][2][18]. Market Performance - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 29.87%, the ChiNext Index surged by 49.57%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index recorded a 46.30% increase [1][2][18]. - The bond market exhibited an N-shaped fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield operating within the range of 1.6% to 1.9% throughout the year [1][2][18]. Market Drivers - The rise in the A-share market was primarily driven by valuation recovery and capital influx, with the overall valuation at historical lows and favorable policies leading to significant revaluation [2][18]. - Ample liquidity from a loose domestic monetary policy and relatively low market interest rates enhanced the attractiveness of equity assets, with long-term funds such as public funds and insurance capital accelerating their market entry [2][18]. Sector Performance - The A-share market in 2025 displayed notable structural differentiation, with technology growth sectors like AI, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and robotics leading the market, benefiting from strong policy support and high industry prosperity [2][19]. - Traditional cyclical and value sectors, such as banking and coal, lagged behind due to weak fundamentals or valuation pressures, resulting in limited gains and occasional adjustments [2][19]. Outlook for 2026 - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, transitioning from valuation-driven to profit-driven growth, focusing on fundamental improvements and verification of economic prosperity [3][20]. - The market style is anticipated to shift from a growth-dominant approach to a more balanced one, with opportunities for both growth and value styles, leading to potential frequent rotations and differentiation [3][20]. Industry Configuration - The industry configuration in 2026 is likely to present a "blooming" scenario, with the technology innovation sector, particularly the AI industry chain, remaining a star performer [3][20]. - High-end manufacturing and new energy sectors are identified as crucial engines for economic growth, benefiting from national strategies and global supply chain restructuring [4][20]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should align with national strategic directions and policy guidance, balancing short-term performance realization with long-term growth potential, and dynamically adjusting industry allocation ratios to navigate complex market environments [5][21].