U.S. Stock Futures in Red to Close an Impressive 2025

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are trading negatively as Wall Street has ended in the negative zone for the last three trading days, raising skepticism about a Santa Rally this year [1] - The major stock indexes have shown year-to-date increases: Dow up 13.7%, S&P 500 up 17.3%, and Nasdaq Composite up 21.5% [1] Historical Performance - In 2023, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite rallied by 13.7%, 23.3%, and 43.4% respectively, while in 2024, they advanced by 12.9%, 23.3%, and 28.6% respectively [2] Future Outlook - Financial analysts are hopeful for a continued rally in 2026, driven primarily by the global AI technology boom, which has transformed the IT sector [3] - The AI infrastructure capital expenditure is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2028, with estimates reaching $5 trillion cumulative by 2030 [4] AI Infrastructure Investment - Four of the "magnificent 7" stocks are set to invest $380 billion in 2025 for AI infrastructure development, marking a 54% year-over-year increase in capital spending [5] - These companies anticipate further increases in AI capital expenditure in 2026 [5] Earnings Expectations - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Q4 2025 earnings, with 18 S&P 500 companies reporting a 32.2% increase in total earnings year-over-year, driven by a 9% rise in revenues [6][7] - The overall earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to rise by 7.6% in Q4 2025, with revenues increasing by 7.7% [7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points in 2025, following a 1% reduction in 2024, with the current rate at 3.50-3.75% [8] - Market participants are anticipating two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, with a 60% probability for the first cut in April [8]