ZACKS·2025-12-31 15:20Core Insights - AI infrastructure spending is projected to exceed $758 billion by 2029, creating significant investment opportunities in the sector [2] - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) represent two distinct investment approaches in AI infrastructure, with Nebius as a fast-growing pure play and Microsoft as a dominant technology giant [1][2] Group 1: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) - Nebius is operating in a supply-constrained AI infrastructure market, with demand for GPU capacity significantly outpacing available resources [3] - The company has raised its contracted power target to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026, up from an earlier goal of 1 gigawatt, and expects to have between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt of capacity operational by the end of next year [3][5] - Nebius secured major contracts, including a five-year, $3 billion agreement with Meta and a deal with Microsoft valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion [4] - The company aims for $7–$9 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2026 and plans to expand data-center operations in the U.K., Israel, and New Jersey, while also establishing new facilities in the U.S. and Europe [5] - Nebius has tightened its full-year revenue guidance to $500–$550 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to turn slightly positive by year-end 2025 [7] - The company faces challenges such as rising operating costs, increased capital expenditure guidance from $2 billion-$5 billion, and execution risks associated with rapid expansion [6][7] Group 2: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - Microsoft has integrated AI capabilities across its product ecosystem, enhancing its competitive position in enterprise AI adoption [10] - The company plans to increase total AI capacity by over 80% this year and nearly double its overall data center footprint in the next two years [11] - Microsoft announced $23 billion in new AI investments, including a $17.5 billion commitment in India, emphasizing its focus on expanding cloud infrastructure [12] - For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Microsoft expects revenues between $79.5 billion and $80.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 14% to 16% [13] - Microsoft is contending with competition from AWS and Google Cloud, as well as rising capital expenditure requirements for AI infrastructure [14] Group 3: Valuation and Performance - Nebius shares have decreased by 15%, while Microsoft stock has seen a slight increase of 0.1% over the past month [15] - Valuation metrics indicate that Microsoft appears undervalued with a VGM Score of B, while Nebius is considered overvalued with a Value Score of F [17] - In terms of Price/Book ratio, NBIS is trading at 4.46X compared to MSFT's 9.98X [18] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates downward for Nebius, while there has been a marginal upward revision for Microsoft [20][21] - Currently, Nebius holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), while Microsoft has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that Microsoft may be a better investment choice at this time [22]